The Political Consequences of Latin American Urban Revolts

Nicolas Somma - Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
The Political Consequences of Latin American Urban Revolts

Abstract
While there is extensive research on the consequences of social movements, less is known about the outcomes of urban revolts. Additionally, many studies have focused on understanding the roots and dynamics of Latin American revolts, but there is no systematic study on their political consequences. We define urban revolts as mass episodes of collective protests in major cities where multiple actors challenge political authorities using peaceful, violent, and disruptive tactics. We study over twenty revolts from 1989 to 2023, exploring their short-term (up to one year) and medium-term (three years) political consequences.

We identify three ideal types of political outcomes. The first, "containment," involves the government harshly repressing the revolts, deterring further protests without making significant concessions. In the second, "reorientation," authorities stay in power, making ministerial changes and/or addressing the revolt's demands through specific policy measures. The third type, "ideological replacement," occurs when the executive power falls, leading to the rise or strengthening of sociopolitical forces that embody the revolt's demands. Replacement also results in significant shifts in economic development goals or cultural recognition of subordinated groups.

After classifying Latin American revolts into these categories, the study explores what factors affect their political outcomes – factors like governmental legitimacy, state capacity, protest dynamics, and the intervention of international agents. We conclude by reflecting on how much our findings might travel to urban revolts in other regions like Europe, Asia, or Africa.